U.S. Foreign Policy under a Harris Administration and the Implications for the Korean Peninsula

Daniel Pinkston, Ph.D. l Expert Advisor, KCPC

If we seek to answer questions regarding U.S. foreign policy and its implications for the Korean Peninsula, we must consider the different levels of analysis in international relations. The actions of states and non-state actors are influenced by factors at the individual, state, and systemic levels. Structural theories of international relations focus on structural variables such as the distribution of power, wealth, and the interests of the major powers in the system. While I am not a structural determinist, recent global trends are undeniable as they are impacting the domestic and foreign policies of the U.S. and other actors in the system.

Despite its flaws, the post-World-War-II international order led by the United States offered a degree of security that enabled South Korea and other American allies to attain relative stability and economic prosperity. The conclusion of the Cold War engendered a sense of American triumphalism, which Fukuyama famously termed “the end of history.” However, American confidence was shaken by the 9/11 terrorist attacks, and the Bush administration’s arguably overreactive and unilateral response undermined U.S. partnerships in Europe and East Asia. The Bush administration clearly was preoccupied with the “Global War on Terror,” but it maintained the bipartisan view, dating back to World War II, that the U.S. holds a pivotal role in global affairs.

The United States has long grappled with isolationist sentiments, dating back to George Washington’s farewell address. In his speech, Washington cautioned that “political factionalism and interference by foreign powers in the nation’s domestic affairs threatened the stability of the republic.” The country’s geography and lack of peer competitors in the Western Hemisphere allowed the U.S. to avoid great power rivalry and large-scale war until the mid-20th century. Although isolationist tendencies persisted, the intense bipolar rivalry with the Soviet Union during the Cold War era infused all aspects of American society and subsequently dampened calls for a more inward-looking and retractive foreign policy. However, the aftermath of the Cold War and the 9/11 attacks, among other factors, have given rise to a renewed discourse on the appropriate role of the United States in international affairs.

The post-9/11 period has been characterized by significant systemic transformations, including rapid technological advancements, structural shifts in the global economy, intensifying environmental degradation and climate change, as well as a redistribution of global power, particularly with the rise of the People’s Republic of China (PRC or China). These systemic changes have unfolded against the backdrop of a global surge in authoritarian tendencies, driven by political opportunists who are capitalizing on doubts about liberal democracy’s capacity to effectively address the complex challenges of our time.

In the United States, the American people have experienced rising income inequality, the 2008 financial crisis, political polarization, and declining public trust in democratic institutions, all of which have fueled a popular backlash against the liberal democracy and the liberal international order. The election of Donald Trump in 2016 disrupted the bipartisan foreign policy consensus and support for the liberal world order that had prevailed since the 1940s. Trump’s “America First” approach dismissed the value of the liberal order, which is premised on the peaceful resolution of disputes, human rights, the rule of law, open and market-based economies, as well as the domestic and international institutions that underpin this order.

While the Biden administration has sought to reassert American leadership and shore up partnerships with allies, the future path of U.S. foreign policy remains uncertain, especially given the significant political divides within the country. Trump’s previous actions, beliefs, influence over the Republican Party, and likely trajectory in a second term are well documented.

The broader political context in the United States, the increasingly complex and interconnected global landscape, and the growing challenges to the liberal international order all have significant ramifications for the role of the United States on the Korean Peninsula and East Asia. The outcome of the election can be viewed as impactful at both the individual and state levels of analysis. Specifically, the election of either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump will shape the character of the U.S. as a state and its role in the international system. While democratic backsliding is a concerning global trend, a Harris administration would likely aim to reinforce and bolster the liberal international order, despite the substantial structural obstacles it faces. Conversely, a Trump victory in 2024 would further undermine the liberal world order and disrupt the bipartisan consensus that has guided U.S. foreign policy for over seven decades.

Recent polling data indicate that Vice President Kamala Harris is poised to emerge victorious in a closely contested election in November. Given this possibility, it is crucial to examine the potential ramifications of a Harris administration for U.S. foreign policy and the country’s prospective role within the international system.

In the U.S. presidential system, the vice president’s constitutional role is limited to a small number of specific duties. However, the Vice President of the United States can become president if the sitting president is unable to serve due to death, resignation, or removal from office through impeachment or the 25th Amendment. The vice president also serves as the President of the Senate but only has the power to vote to break a tie. This limited role led Vice President John Nance Garner to say the office is “not worth a bucket of warm piss.”

In contemporary times, the vice president has emerged as an influential advisor to the president on a wide spectrum of issue areas, including foreign affairs. However, given the authority and executive powers vested in the presidency, the vice president is typically consigned to a subordinate, supporting role vis-à-vis the president. The specific dynamics depend on the president’s management style and the personal rapport between the two officeholders. That said, it can be easy to misinterpret or underestimate the distinct views or policy stances of a vice president who has operated in a lower-profile capacity. Therefore, it is important to scrutinize Kamala Harris’s background, experience, and key policy positions in order to anticipate how she might shape U.S. foreign policy as president.

A Harris presidency would represent a generational transition from the leadership of Joe Biden and Donald Trump, and she would become the first woman to hold the U.S. presidency. Harris will turn 60 in October 2024, yet she conveys a more youthful image compared to Trump (78) and Biden, who will be 82 years old in November. While Harris is a lawyer by training, her personal background is distinct. She is a biracial individual and the child of immigrant parents, having been raised in the culturally diverse environment of Oakland, California. Harris’s mother, a scientist and renowned breast cancer researcher who immigrated from India, exerted a profound influence on her upbringing. When Harris was 12 years old, her mother accepted a research position at Canada’s McGill University, leading Harris to attend middle and high school in Montreal, where she graduated in 1981.

Kamala Harris graduated with a degree in political science and economics from Howard University, a prestigious historically Black college and university located in Washington, DC. She then pursued a Juris Doctor degree from the University of California, Hastings College of the Law in San Francisco, completing her legal education in 1989. Following this, she began her career as a deputy district attorney in Alameda County before successfully running for and being elected as the district attorney of San Francisco in 2002. In 2010, Harris was elected as the attorney general of California, a position she held until 2017. Her rapid political ascent in California culminated in her election to the United States Senate in 2016. While she initially ran for the presidency in 2019, she later withdrew from the race and accepted the nomination to be Joe Biden’s running mate in the 2020 election, prior to the conclusion of her first six-year Senate term.

Kamala Harris’s relatively brief tenure in the United States Senate and her focus on domestic legal issues have led many to question her qualifications to serve as president, particularly in the realm of foreign policy. In contrast, Joe Biden’s extensive experience as a long-serving senator, including his chairmanship of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and his subsequent role as vice president under President Obama, have provided him with substantial foreign policy expertise. Biden’s decision to launch another presidential campaign in 2020, despite his advanced age, was motivated by his opposition to the policies of the previous administration. Furthermore, Biden’s commitment to selecting a woman as his running mate in the 2020 election opened the opportunity for Kamala Harris to join the ticket.

Although Kamala Harris’s international experience is more limited than Joe Biden’s, her tenure in the United States Senate, including her service on the Senate Intelligence Committee and the Senate Homeland Security Committee, has demonstrated her keen interest in and substantive knowledge of prominent global issues. Furthermore, her close working relationship with President Biden as his Vice President for nearly four years has likely enhanced Harris’s foreign policy expertise and aptitude, rendering her better equipped to assume the presidency relative to her previous presidential bid in 2020.

Given the domestic policy focus of U.S. presidential politics, particularly on economic issues, many incoming presidents possess limited foreign policy experience. Some presidents enter office with ambitious domestic agendas, only to face unavoidable international crises, while others demonstrate a natural inclination towards foreign affairs and the pursuit of global solutions. Despite Kamala Harris’s enhanced foreign policy exposure as vice president, her professional background as a prosecutor, district attorney, attorney general, and senator offers insights into her fundamental beliefs, values, and worldview.

Harris was raised in a diverse, multicultural environment that shaped her worldview and values. Growing up in the culturally rich Bay Area, she was exposed to the civil rights movement through her activist parents, particularly her mother. As a child of immigrant grandparents from India and Jamaica, and having attended high school in French-speaking Montreal, Harris developed a nuanced understanding and empathy for those facing discrimination due to their race, gender, religion, or sexual orientation. Additionally, her personal experience with her parents’ separation and divorce, as well as her role as a stepmother, provided her with direct familiarity with non-traditional family structures that are often viewed with skepticism by more conservative elements, particularly in the Republican Party. Reminiscing about her childhood, Harris writes:

Looking at the photo of my first-grade class reminds me of how wonderful it was to grow up in such a diverse environment. Because the students came from all over the area, we were a varied bunch; some grew up in public housing and others were the children of professors. I remember celebrating varied cultural holidays at school and learning to count to ten in several languages.

Given her background as a prosecutor and law enforcement official in California, Kamala Harris has likely cultivated a pragmatic approach to governance. This pragmatism is characterized by an emphasis on practical problem-solving, achieving tangible outcomes, and navigating intricate legal and political terrains to advance her policy goals. In this context, Harris’s foreign policy orientation may be guided by a focus on finding practical solutions and a tendency towards multilateral cooperation, rather than adhering to rigid ideologies or unilateral assertiveness.

As a former San Francisco district attorney and California Attorney General, Harris combated transnational criminal activities, including signing an agreement with Mexico’s financial regulators to help tackle money laundering. Harris believes that “in [America], a crime against any of us is considered a crime against all of us.” Her perspective on justice and the rule of law has seemingly carried over to her approach to foreign policy, wherein she recognizes the importance of multilateral cooperation to address global challenges, despite the United States’ superpower status. Kamala Harris’s foreign policy orientation is likely shaped by her personal background and a commitment to advancing democratic principles and human rights worldwide.

In early September 2024, the Harris Campaign released a list of policy positions entitled “A New Way Forward.” Her campaign theme is “Freedom,” and it focuses on economic policies to support the middle class. She pledges to build an “opportunity economy that ensures every person has the opportunity to not just get by, but to get ahead.” The platform lists the following items:

In September 2024, the Harris Campaign unveiled a set of policy positions titled “A New Way Forward.” The campaign’s central theme is “Freedom,” and it concentrates on economic policies aimed at supporting the middle class. Harris pledges to construct an “opportunity economy that ensures every individual has the opportunity to not just get by, but to get ahead.” The policy platform outlines the following elements:

·         BUILD AN OPPORTUNITY ECONOMY AND LOWER COSTS FOR FAMILIES

o   Cut Taxes for Middle Class Families

o   Make Rent More Affordable and Home Ownership More Attainable

o   Grow Small Businesses and Invest in Entrepreneurs

o   Take on Bad Actors and Bring Down Costs

o   Strengthen and Bring Down the Cost of Health Care

o   Protect and Strengthen Social Security and Medicare

o   Support American Innovation and Workers

o   Provide a Pathway to the Middle Class Through Quality, Affordable Education

o   Invest in Affordable Child Care and Long-Term Care

o   Lower Energy Costs and Tackle the Climate Crisis

·         SAFEGUARD OUR FUNDAMENTAL FREEDOMS

o   Restore and Protect Reproductive Freedoms

o   Protect Civil Rights and Freedoms

·         ENSURE SAFETY AND JUSTICE FOR ALL

o   Make Our Communities Safer from Gun Violence and Crime

o   Secure Our Borders and Fix Our Broken Immigration System

o   Tackle the Opioid and Fentanyl Crisis

o   Ensure No One Is Above the Law

·         KEEP AMERICA SAFE, SECURE, AND PROSPEROUS

o   Stand With Our Allies, Stand Up to Dictators, and Lead on the World Stage

o   Invest in America’s Sources of Strength

o   Support Service Members, Veterans, Their Families, Caregivers, and Survivors

The policy platform aligns with the preferences of the average American voter, who generally does not prioritize international issues unless a significant foreign policy crisis arises. However, presidents cannot disregard foreign affairs, as doing so risks adverse consequences that can blowback from abroad. Harris’s foreign policy positions, as released in September 2024, are consistent with the U.S. bipartisan consensus over the last 70 years. Her emphasis on human rights, democracy promotion, and the significance of international institutions reflects traditional Democratic Party postures. Specifically, her foreign policy position is as follows:

            KEEP AMERICA SAFE, SECURE, AND PROSPEROUS

Vice President Harris will never waver in defense of America’s security and ideals. As Vice President, she has confronted threats to our security, negotiated with foreign leaders, strengthened our alliances, and engaged with our brave troops overseas. As Commander In Chief, she will ensure that the United States military remains the strongest, most lethal fighting force in the world, that we unleash the power of American innovation and win the competition for the 21st century, and that we strengthen, not abdicate, our global leadership. And Vice President Harris will fulfill our sacred obligation to care for our troops and their families, and will always honor their service and their sacrifice.

Stand With Our Allies, Stand Up to Dictators, and Lead on the World Stage

Vice President Harris is ready to be Commander in Chief on day one. She has helped restore American leadership on the world stage, strengthened our national security through her travels to 21 countries and meetings with more than 150 world leaders, defended American values and democracy, and advanced America’s interests.

Vice President Harris has been a tireless and effective diplomat on the world stage. She has met with China’s Xi Jinping, making clear she will always stand up for American interests in the face of China’s threats, and traveled to the Indo-Pacific four times to advance our economic and security partnerships. She visited the Korean Demilitarized Zone to affirm our unwavering commitment to South Korea in the face of North Korean threats (emphasis added). Five days before Russia attacked Ukraine, she met with President Zelenskyy to warn him about Russia’s plan to invade and helped mobilize a global response of more than 50 countries to help Ukraine defend itself against Vladimir Putin’s brutal aggression. And she has worked with our allies to ensure NATO is stronger than ever. 

Vice President Harris will never hesitate to take whatever action is necessary to protect U.S. forces and interests from Iran and Iran-backed terrorist groups. Vice President Harris will always stand up for Israel’s right to defend itself and she will always ensure Israel has the ability to defend itself. She and President Biden are working to end the war in Gaza, such that Israel is secure, the hostages are released, the suffering in Gaza ends, and the Palestinian people can realize their right to dignity, security, freedom, and self-determination. She and President Biden are working around the clock to get a hostage deal and a ceasefire deal done.[1]

Vice President Harris has demonstrated a keen interest and awareness of the cybersecurity challenges posed by North Korean and other malevolent cyber actors. She has expressed a commitment to collaborating with international allies to confront and counteract the actions of authoritarian leaders like Kim Jong-un. In her foreign policy platform, Harris pledges to bolster cooperation with democratic allies in Asia and Europe to address transnational challenges such as climate change, global health security, and the proliferation of nuclear weapons. In sum, she is expected to continue the Biden administration’s efforts to enhance trilateral security cooperation among Seoul, Tokyo, and Washington.

In her Asia-Pacific policy, President Harris would reaffirm the United States’ alliance commitments, including the provision of a nuclear deterrent for South Korea and Japan. Regarding Taiwan, the administration would uphold the existing U.S. position on cross-Strait relations and Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea. However, the new administration may confront complex challenges if Beijing becomes increasingly aggressive or attempts to unilaterally alter the status quo in Taiwan or the South China Sea by force.

Given Kamala Harris’s propensity for collaborative problem-solving, there exists ample potential to bolster collective security cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region. This could entail allied collaboration across various domains, including research and development, procurement, supply chain resilience, space security, cybersecurity, maritime security, missile defense, counterterrorism, disaster response, and humanitarian aid.

As authoritarian states position themselves to challenge the established liberal international order, they may miscalculate and test the resolve of the United States and its allies. However, Washington, Seoul, and their partners will be prepared to address any such contingencies. These challenges will likely commence with ambiguous, gray-zone provocations to assess readiness and responsiveness. The complex security issues in Gaza, the Middle East, Ukraine, and the South China Sea will constrain the bandwidth of a Harris administration to launch bold new engagement initiatives with North Korea. Given the frozen state of inter-Korean relations, the Yoon government will view Harris’s “Freedom” agenda as a focal point to collaborate on advancing human rights improvements in North Korea.

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